Part Four / What We’ve Done About It

4.17 Is the Future Electric?

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All online sources accessed on

  1. total transport activity is expected to more than double International Transport Forum, ‘Executive Summary’, ITF Transport Outlook 2021 , 17 May 2021, https://www.itf-oecd.org/itf-transport-outlook-2021.

    no way we can meet the decarbonization targets of the Paris Agreement Ibid.

    Cars, vans and buses tend to stay in circulation Keith, D. R., et al., ‘Vehicle fleet turnover and the future of fuel economy’, Environmental Research Letters, 14 (2), 2019: Article 021001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf4d2.

    global CO2 emissions from cars drop by only 14 per cent International Energy Agency, ‘Transport sector CO2 emissions by mode in the sustainable development scenario, 2000–2030’, 5 January 2022, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/transport-sector-co2-emissions-by-mode-in-the-sustainable-development-scenario-2000-2030.

  2. increasing vehicle weight and power … reducing the rate of efficiency International Energy Agency, Vehicle Fuel Economy in Major Markets 2005–2019, Global Fuel Economy Initiative working paper, November 2021, https://www.globalfueleconomy.org/data-and-research/publications/gfei-working-paper-22.

    45 per cent of all light-duty vehicle sales ‘In 2021, SUVs accounted for more than 45% of global car sales – setting a new record in terms of both volume and market share.’ (Source: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/global-suv-sales-set-another-record-in-2021-setting-back-efforts-to-reduce-emissions)

    This eroded up to 40 per cent of improvements in fuel economy Global Fuel Economy Initiative, ‘Vehicle efficiency improvements vastly insufficient to achieve Paris goals says new GFEI report in urgent call for policy action’, 4 November 2021, https://www.globalfueleconomy.org/blog/2021/november/vehicle-efficiency-improvements-vastly-insufficient-to-achieve-paris-goals-says-new-gfei-report-in-urgent-call-for-policy-action.

    carbon emissions in 2020 fell across all sectors except for one Cozzi, L., and Petropoulos, A., ‘Carbon emissions fell across all sectors in 2020 except for one – SUVs – analysis’, International Energy Agency, 15 January 2021, https://www.iea.org/commentaries/carbon-emissions-fell-across-all-sectors-in-2020-except-for-one-suvs.

    The US … incentivizes large EVs United States Environment and Protection Agency, ‘Highlights of the automotive trends report’, 19 November 2019, https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-trends-report.

    plug-in hybrid cars … about a third of global EV sales ‘plug-in hybrid electric cars made up about a fifth of global EV sales in 2021’ https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electric-car-registrations-and-sales-share-in-china-united-states-europe-and-other-regions-2016-2021, based on data underpinning the Figure ‘Electric car registrations and sales share in China, United States, Europe and other regions, 2016-2021’.

    One of the fastest, easiest and most efficient methods Boyle, D. et al., Smoking out the Climate: Lessons from the Advertising Ban on Tobacco for Tackling the Climate Emergency, Badvertising, August 2020, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ebd0080238e863d04911b51/t/5f1fe08099156872c6ca1e59/1595924618033/Smoking+Out+The+Climate+FINAL.pdf.

    could cumulatively save about 100 million tonnes of CO2 Gross, R., et al., Review of Energy Policy, United Kingdom Energy Research Centre, December 2020, https://ukerc.ac.uk/publications/review-of-energy-policy-2020/.

    an increasing number of people are being forced to own a car Mattioli, G., ‘Transport poverty and car dependence: a European perspective’, in Pereira, R. H. M., and Boisjoly, G., eds., Advances in Transport Policy and Planning: Social Issues in Transport Planning (London: Academic Press, 2021), 101–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.atpp.2021.06.004.

  3. a motorway speed limit of 130 kilometres per hour Umweltbundesamt, ‘Speed limits on motorways clearly cut down CO2 emissions’, 18 March 2020, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/press/pressinformation/speed-limits-on-motorways-clearly-cut-down-co2.

    more than the annual total of sixty of the lowest-emitting countries Global Carbon Atlas, ‘CO2 emissions’, 2018, www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions.

    Lowering the speed limit to 100 kph Umweltbundesamt, ‘Speed limits on motorways clearly cut down CO2 emissions’.

    59 per cent of car trips are less than 5 miles Department for Transport, ‘National travel survey: 2020’, 22 September 2021, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-travel-survey-2020/national-travel-survey-2020.

    Walking, cycling and e-biking … can reduce emissions Brand, C., et al., ‘The climate change mitigation impacts of active travel: evidence from a longitudinal panel study in seven European cities’, Global Environmental Change, 67, 2021: Article 102224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102224.

    new, lighter forms of e-micromobility Ebenezer, N., et al., Electromobility in the Global South: An Equitable Transition toward Road Passenger Transport Decarbonization, Sustainable Mobility for All Partnership and Climate Compatible Growth Programme, https://www.sum4all.org/data/files/electromobility_in_the_global_south_an_equitable_transition_toward_road_passenger_transport_decarbonization.pdf.

    buses are … making the transition to battery technology Facts & Factors, ‘Global electric bus market share grow at 25% CAGR, to exceed 600 thousand units sales by 2026, according to Facts & Factors’, GlobeNewswire, 25 June 2021, https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/06/25/2253218/0/en/Global-Electric-Bus-Market-Share-Grow-at-25-CAGR-to-Exceed-600-Thousand-Units-Sales-by-2026-According-to-Facts-Factors.html.

  4. primarily saw increased uptake among existing users Figg, H., ‘Free passenger transport – exploring the benefits and disadvantages’, Eltis, 2 June 2021, https://www.eltis.org/resources/case-studies/free-passenger-transport-exploring-benefits-and-disadvantages.

    car-restricting policies were crucial for the Netherlands Bruno, M., et al., ‘Mobility protests in the Netherlands of the 1970s: activism, innovation, and transitions’, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 40, 2021: 521–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2021.10.001.

    per capita carbon emissions from personal transport in the Netherlands Calculation of average per capita carbon emissions based on data from European Environment Agency, ‘EEA greenhouse gases: data viewer’, https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/data-viewers/greenhouse-gases-viewer.

    total car mileage will need to decline Hopkinson, L., et al., ‘Radical transport policy two-pager #10. The last chance saloon: we need to cut car mileage by at least 20 per cent’, Transport for Quality of Life, December 2021, https://www.transportforqualityoflife.com/u/files/211214 per cent20The per cent20last per cent20chance per cent20saloon per cent20to per cent20cut per cent20car per cent20mileage.pdf.

    policies to create ‘fifteen-’ or ‘twenty-minute neighbourhoods’ Pozoukidou, G., and Chatziyiannaki, Z., ‘15-minute city: decomposing the new urban planning eutopia’, Sustainability, 13 (2), 2021: Article 928, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020928.

    the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated trends towards virtual meanings Skiles, M., et al., ‘Conference demographics and footprint changed by virtual platforms’, Nature Sustainability, 5 (2), 2022: 149–56, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00823-2.

  5. just 11 per cent … accounts for nearly 44 per cent of total car mileage Cass, N., et al., Curbing Excess: High Energy Consumption and the Fair Energy Transition, Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, February 2020, https://www.creds.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/CREDS-curbing-excess-Feb2022.pdf.

    About 80 per cent … have never flown Hopkinson, L., and Cairns, S., Elite Status: Global Inequalities in Flying, Possible, March 2021, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d30896202a18c0001b49180/t/605a0951f9b7543b55bb003b/1616513362894/Elite+Status+Global+inequalities+in+flying.pdf.