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climatic shifts … fall of the Roman Empire
Huntington, E., ‘Climatic change and agricultural exhaustion as elements in the fall of Rome’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 31 (2), 1917: 173– 208, https://doi.org/10.2307/1883908.hotter temperatures have been shown to lead to increases
See, for example, Larrick, R. P., et al., ‘Temper, temperature, and temptation: heat-related retaliation in baseball’, Psychological Science, 22 (4), 2011: 423–8, https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0956797611399292; Ranson, M., ‘Crime, weather, and climate change’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 67 (3), 2014: 274–302, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2013.11.008.exacerbate the likelihood of group-level conflict
See, for example, Harari, M., and La Ferrara, E., ‘Conflict, climate, and cells: a disaggregated analysis’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 100 (4), 2018: 594–608, https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00730; Burke, M. B., et al., ‘Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106 (49), 2009: 20670–74, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907998106; Hsiang, S. M., et al., ‘Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate’, Nature, 476 (7361), 2011: 438–41, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10311; Baysan, C., et al., ‘Non-economic factors in violence: evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 168, 2019: 434–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.021.going up by as much as 10–20 per cent for every degree Celsius
Burke, M., et al., ‘Climate and conflict’, Annual Review of Economics, 7, 2015: 577–617, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430.