Troisième partie / Quels impacts sur l’humanité ?

3.19 Les conflits climatiques

Toutes les sources numériques ont été consultées le

  1. attribuaient la chute brutale de l’Empire romain aux changements climatiques Huntington, E., ‘Climatic change and agricultural exhaustion as elements in the fall of Rome’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 31 (2), 1917: 173– 208, https://doi.org/10.2307/1883908.

    lorsqu’on monte la température […] comportements plus agressifs Voir par exemple, Larrick, R. P., et al., ‘Temper, temperature, and temptation: heat-related retaliation in baseball’, Psychological Science, 22 (4), 2011: 423–8, https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0956797611399292; Ranson, M., ‘Crime, weather, and climate change’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 67 (3), 2014: 274–302, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2013.11.008.

    des températures plus élevées […] accroissent la probabilité de conflits de groupes Voir par exemple, Harari, M., and La Ferrara, E., ‘Conflict, climate, and cells: a disaggregated analysis’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 100 (4), 2018: 594–608, https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00730; Burke, M. B., et al., ‘Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106 (49), 2009: 20670–74, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907998106; Hsiang, S. M., et al., ‘Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate’, Nature, 476 (7361), 2011: 438–41, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10311; Baysan, C., et al., ‘Non-economic factors in violence: evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 168, 2019: 434–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.021.

    augmente de 10 % à 20 % pour chaque degré supplémentaire Burke, M., et al., ‘Climate and conflict’, Annual Review of Economics, 7, 2015: 577–617, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430.