Part One / How Climate Works

1.8 Tipping Points and Feedback Loops

All online sources accessed on

  1. our globalized world constitutes the largest driver of change Steffen W., et al., ‘The trajectory of the Anthropocene: the Great Acceleration’, Anthropocene Review, 2 (1), 2015: 81–98, https://doi:10.1177/2053019614564785.

    sufficient to affect our planet’s future during the next half a million years Talento, S., and Ganopolski, A., ‘Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles’, Earth System Dynamics, , 12 (4), 2021: 1275–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021.

    the Earth system seems to be running out of resilience Steffen, W., et al., ‘The emergence and evolution of Earth system science’, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 1 (1), 2020: 54–63, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-019-0005-6.

    which could culminate in an irreversible drift Steffen, W., et al., ‘Trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115 (33), 2018: 8252–9, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115.

  2. The only way to succeed in this human quest Rockström, J., et al., ‘We need biosphere stewardship that protects carbon sinks and builds resilience’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (38), 2021: Article e2115218118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115218118.

    requires that we govern … within planetary boundaries Steffen, W., et al., ‘Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet’, Science, 347 (6223), 2015, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259855.

  3. even at 1.5°C of warming … sea-level rise of at least 2 metres Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. V. Masson-Delmotte et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, in press), https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.

  4. In 2008, a range of climate-tipping elements were identified Lenton, T. M., et al., ‘Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105 (6), 2008: 1786–93, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105.

    25 generic types of regime shift Rocha, J. C., et al., ‘Regime shifts in the Anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience’, PLOS One, 10 (8), 2015: Article e0134639, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0134639.

    a ten-year science update on climate tipping-point risks Lenton, T. M., et al., ‘Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against’, Nature, 575 (7784), 2019: 592–5, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0.

    This assessment was to a large extent confirmed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.