Part Two / How our Planet is Changing

2.17 The Amazon

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All online sources accessed on

  1. 16 per cent of the carbon dioxide removed Beer, C., et al., ‘Terrestrial gross carbon dioxide uptake: global distribution and covariation with climate’, Science, 329 (5993), 2010: 834–8, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184984; Bullock, E. L., et al., ‘Satellite‐based estimates reveal widespread forest degradation in the Amazon’, Global Change Biology, 26 (5), 2020: 2956–69, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15029.

    helping store 150–200 billion tonnes of carbon Saatchi, S. S., et al., ‘Distribution of above-ground live biomass in the Amazon basin’, Global Change Biology, 13 (4), 2007: 816–37, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01323.x; Malhi, Y., et al., ‘Comprehensive assessment of carbon productivity, allocation and storage in three Amazonian forests’, Global Change Biology, 15 (5), 2009: 1255–74, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01780.x; Oliveira Marques, J. D. de, et al., ‘Soil carbon stocks under Amazonian forest: distribution in the soil fractions and vulnerability to emission’, Open Journal of Forestry, 7 (2), 2017: 121–42, doi: 10.4236/ojf.2017.72008.

    The temperature … has increased by an average of 1.02°C Gatti, L. V., et al., ‘Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change’, Nature, 595 (7867), 2021: 388–93, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6.

    2019–20 was the second-warmest year since 1960 Marengo, J. A., et al., ‘Changes in climate and land use over the Amazon region: current and future variability and trends’, Frontiers in Earth Science, 6, 2018: Article 228, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00228; Nobre, C. A., and Borma, L. D. S., ‘“Tipping points” for the Amazon forest’, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1 (1), 2009: 28–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003.

    Climate variability has also increased … droughts and heatwaves Nobre, C. A., et al., ‘Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113 (39), 2016: 10759–68, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1605516113; Marengo et al., ‘Changes in climate and land use over the Amazon region: current and future variability and trends’; Nobre and Borma, ‘“Tipping points” for the Amazon forest’.

    current concentration is 414 ppm Global Monitoring Laboratory, ‘Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide’, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2021, https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html; Ellwanger, J. H., et al., ‘Beyond diversity loss and climate change: impacts of Amazon deforestation on infectious diseases and public health’, Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, 92, 2020: Article 20191375, https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202020191375.

  2. more than 150 days … above 35°C per year Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. V. Masson-Delmotte et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, in press), doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.001.

    strongly linked to the construction of roads National Institute of Space Research, TerraBrasilis, http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/map/deforestation; Beer et al., ‘Terrestrial gross carbon dioxide uptake: global distribution and covariation with climate’; Bullock et al., ‘Satellite‐based estimates reveal widespread forest degradation in the Amazon’.

    a 40 per cent reduction in precipitation Nobre et al., ‘Land-use and climate change risks’; Leite-Filho, A. T., et al., ‘Effects of deforestation on the onset of the rainy season and the duration of dry spells in Southern Amazonia’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 2019: 5268–81, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029537.

    a further rise in tree mortality and carbon emissions Malhi et al., ‘Comprehensive assessment of carbon productivity, allocation and storage in three Amazonian forests’.

    2.5 billion trees perished Science Panel for the Amazon, Executive Summary of the Amazon Assessment Report 2021, ed. C. Nobre et al., United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 2001, https://www.theamazonwewant.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/220717-SPA-Executive-Summary-2021-EN.pdf.

    a proliferation of grasses and woody plants Nobre, C. A., et al., ‘Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change’, Journal of Climate, 4 (10), 1991: 957–88, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0957:ADARCC>2.0.CO;2.

    altered seasonal leaf flushing Camargo, M. G. G. de, et al., ‘Leafing patterns and leaf exchange strategies of a cerrado woody community’, Biotropica, 50 (3), 2018: 442–54, https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12552; Cammelli, F., et al., ‘Smallholders’ perceptions of fire in the Brazilian Amazon: exploring implications for governance arrangements’, Human Ecology, 47 (4), 2019: 601–12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-019-00096-6.

    new post-fire resprouting strategies Pilon, N. A. L., et al., ‘The diversity of post-fire regeneration strategies in the cerrado ground layer’, Journal of Ecology, 109 (1), 2021: 154–66, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13456.

    once deforestation affects 40 per cent Nobre et al., ‘Land-use and climate change risks’; Sampaio, G., et al., ‘Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion’, Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (17), 2007: Article L17709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030612.

    up to 60 per cent … could disappear by 2050 Nobre et al., ‘Land-use and climate change risks’.

  3. a ‘green barrier’ against the spread of infectious disease Global Monitoring Laboratory, ‘Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide’; Ellwanger et al., ‘Beyond diversity loss and climate change’; Flores, B. M., and Levis, C., ‘Human-food feedback in tropical forests’, Science, 372 (6547), 2021: 1146–7, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abh1806;
    Sokolow, S. H., Nova, N., Pepin, K. M., Peel, A. J., Pulliam, J. R. C., Manlove, K., Cross, P. C., Becker, D. J., Plowright, R. K., McCallum, H., & de Leo, G. A. (2019), ‘Ecological interventions to prevent and manage zoonotic pathogen spillover’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 374(1782). https://doi.org/10.1098/RSTB.2018.0342

    devastating impacts on biodiversity Laurindo, R. S., et al., ‘The effects of habitat loss on bat-fruit networks’, Biodiversity and Conservation, 28 (3), 2019: 589–601, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-018-1676-x.

    mostly in deforested areas Leite-Filho et al., ‘Effects of deforestation’.

    2–3°C warmer Gatti et al., ‘Amazonia as a carbon source’.

    a marked reduction of evapotranspiration Barkhordarian, A., et al., ‘A recent systematic increase in vapor pressure deficit over tropical South America’, Science Reports, 9, 2019: Article 15331, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-51857-8.

    emit more carbon than they were storing Gatti et al., ‘Amazonia as a carbon source’.

    a carbon source instead of a carbon sink Ibid.

    transformed into a degraded savannah Nobre et al., ‘Land-use and climate change risks’.

    posing a direct mortal threat Alves de Oliveira, B. F., et al., ‘Deforestation and climate change are projected to increase heat stress risk in the Brazilian Amazon’, Communications Earth and Environment, 2, 2021: Article 207, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00275-8.