Part Three / How it Affects Us

3.5 Vector-borne Diseases

All online sources accessed on

  1. about 17 per cent of all lost life, illness and disability World Health Organization, Global Vector Control Response 2017–2030, 2 October 2017, https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241512978.

    As temperatures rise … vector-borne diseases are gradually spreading Watts, N., et al., ‘The 2019 report of the Lancet countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate’, Lancet, 394 (10211), 2019: 1836–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6.

    malaria is shifting towards higher altitudes Ibid.

  2. if it becomes too hot or too cold Colón-González, F. J., et al., ‘Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study’, Lancet Planet Health, 5 (7), 2021: e404–e414, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7; Mordecai, E. A., et al., ‘Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease’, Ecology Letters, 22 (10), 2019: 1690–1708, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13335.

    Increased rainfall … insects can breed Lowe, R., et al., ‘Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study’, Lancet Planetary Health, 5 (4), 2021: e209–e219, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30292-8.

    climate change might substantially increase the … transmission season Colón-González et al., ‘Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases’.

  3. might increase by up to 1.6 additional months Ibid.

    replaced by a more heat-adapted species of mosquito Watts et al., ‘The 2019 report of the Lancet countdown’; Colón-González et al., ‘Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases’; Mordecai, E. A., et al., ‘Climate change could shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa’, Lancet Planetary Health, 4 (9), 2020: e416–e423, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30178-9.

    transmitted by mosquitoes that prefer warmer weather Mordecai et al., ‘Climate change could shift disease burden’.

    Malaria and dengue may spread into temperate areas Colón-González et al., ‘Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases’; Caminade, C., et al., ‘Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111 (9), 2014: 3286–91, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302089111; Liu-Helmersson, J., et al., ‘Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100’, Environmental Research, 172, 2019: 693–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.026.

    Epidemiological surveillance, monitoring and early-warning systems Colón-González, F. J., et al., ‘Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: a modelling study using superensembles’, PLOS Medicine, 18, 2021: Article e1003542, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003542.

  4. 3.6 billion more … at risk of malaria and dengue Colón-González et al., ‘Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases’.

    The stakes are high for us to limit global warming Colón-González, F. J., et al., ‘Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2°C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115 (24), 2018: 6243–8, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718945115.