Part Three / How it Affects Us

3.3 Heat and Illness

All online sources accessed on

  1. In recent years, historical extreme heatwaves Robine, J.-M., et al., ‘Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003’, Comptes rendus biologies, 331 (2), 2008: 171–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001; Shaposhnikov, D., et al., ‘Mortality related to air pollution with the Moscow heat wave and wildfire of 2010’, Epidemiology, 25 (3), 2014: 359–64, doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000090.

    around 1 per cent of all deaths in the world can be attributed to heat Zhao, Q., et al., ‘Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study’, Lancet Planetary Health, 5 (7), 2021: e415–e425, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4.

    this burden will grow in the coming decades Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., et al., ‘The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change’, Nature Climate Change, 11 (6), 2021: 492–500, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x.

    climate change will increase … heat-related deaths by ten times Gasparrini, A., et al., ‘Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios’, Lancet Planetary Health, 1 (9), 2017: e360–e367, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0

    larger heat-related risks are mostly observed … among the elderly Chen, K., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., and Dubrow, R., ‘Projections of ambient temperature- and air pollution-related mortality burden under combined climate change and population aging scenarios: a review’, Current Environmental Health Reports, 7 (3), 2020: 243–55, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-020-00281-6

  2. serious problems even before that point Buzan, J. R., and Huber, M., ‘Moist heat stress on a hotter earth’, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 48, 2020: 623–55, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060100.

    deaths from heat stroke are a very small fraction Alahmad, B., et al., ‘Cardiovascular mortality and exposure to heat in an inherently hot region: implications for climate change’, Circulation, 141 (15), 2020: 1271–3, https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.119.044860.

    Mortality represents just the tip of the iceberg Romanello, M., et al., ‘The 2021 report of the Lancet countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future’, Lancet, 398 (10311), 2021: 1619–62, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6.

    the elderly, pregnant women, children and people with chronic conditions Benmarhnia, T., et al., ‘Review article: vulnerability to heat-related mortality: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis’, Epidemiology, 26 (6), 2015: 781–93, doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000375.

    Impacts also vary considerably across regions Gasparrini, A., et al., ‘Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study’, Lancet, 386 (9991), 2015: 369–75, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0.

    highly urbanized populations … are most impacted Sera, F., et al., ‘How urban characteristics affect vulnerability to heat and cold: a multi-country analysis’, International Journal of Epidemiology, 48 (4), 2019: 1101–12, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz008.

    Although we have partially adapted to heat Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., et al., ‘A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate’, Environment International, 111, 2018: 239–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006.

  3. Air-conditioning has traditionally been considered an effective solution Sera, F., et al., ‘Air conditioning and heat-related mortality: a multi-country longitudinal study’, Epidemiology, 31 (6), 2020: 779–87, doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001241.