{"id":1002,"date":"2022-09-01T12:12:42","date_gmt":"2022-09-01T12:12:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/notas-finais\/como-o-planeta-esta-a-mudar\/2-24-o-que-acontece-com-um-aquecimento-de-15-2-e-4c\/"},"modified":"2022-09-01T12:12:42","modified_gmt":"2022-09-01T12:12:42","slug":"2-24-o-que-acontece-com-um-aquecimento-de-15-2-e-4c","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/pt-pt\/notas-finais\/como-o-planeta-esta-a-mudar\/2-24-o-que-acontece-com-um-aquecimento-de-15-2-e-4c\/","title":{"rendered":"2.24 O que Acontece com Um Aquecimento de 1,5, 2 e 4\u00b0C?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Tamsin Edwards<\/a><\/p>\n

Todas as fontes online foram acedidas no dia

    \n
  1. \n

    \nO tipo de calor que era esperado apenas uma vez em cada d\u00e9cada<\/q> Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas, \u2018Summary for policymakers\u2019<\/cite>, in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas<\/span>, ed. V. Masson-Delmotte et al<\/em>. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, no prelo), Fig. SPM.6: \u2018Hot temperature extremes over land\u2019<\/cite>, https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/<\/a>. O calor extremo \u00e9 definido como temperaturas m\u00e1ximas di\u00e1rias sobre a terra que foram excedidas em m\u00e9dia uma vez por d\u00e9cada entre 1850 e 1900.\n<\/p>\n

    \nchuva extrema \u00e9 30% mais prov\u00e1vel<\/q> Ibid., Fig. SPM.6: \u2018Heavy precipitation over land\u2019<\/cite>. Precipita\u00e7\u00e3o extrema \u00e9 definida como a quantidade de precipita\u00e7\u00e3o di\u00e1ria sobre a terra que foi excedida em m\u00e9dia uma vez por d\u00e9cada entre 1850 e 1900.\n<\/p>\n

    \nAs secas\u2026 s\u00e3o 70% mais prov\u00e1veis<\/q> Ibid., Fig. SPM.6: \u2018Agricultural and ecological droughts in drying regions\u2019<\/cite>. A seca \u00e9 definida como a m\u00e9dia anual da humidade total do solo da coluna abaixo do d\u00e9cimo percentil no per\u00edodo 1850-1900.\n<\/p>\n

    \n\u00e9 agora tr\u00eas vezes mais prov\u00e1vel<\/q> Otto, F. E. L., et al<\/em>., \u2018Likelihood of Cape Town water crisis tripled by climate change\u2019<\/cite>, World Weather Attribution, 13 de Julho de 2018, https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/the-role-of-climate-change-in-the-2015-2017-drought-in-the-western-cape-of-south-africa<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nduplicando-as at\u00e9 ao final do s\u00e9culo<\/q> As emiss\u00f5es de
    \nCO2<\/sub> de todos os sectores aumentam de cerca de 40 gigatoneladas para 80 gigatoneladas entre 2015 e 2100, ou seja, uma m\u00e9dia de pouco menos de 0,5 gigatoneladas por ano (a grande maioria das quais prov\u00e9m de combust\u00edveis f\u00f3sseis, e n\u00e3o da desfloresta\u00e7\u00e3o). Isto \u00e9 semelhante ao aumento m\u00e9dio das emiss\u00f5es de CO2 dos combust\u00edveis f\u00f3sseis, de cerca de 26 gigatoneladas por ano para cerca de 36 gigatoneladas por ano durante o per\u00edodo de vinte anos 2000-2019, estimado no or\u00e7amento global do carbono para 2021: Global Carbon Project, \u2018Infographics: Global carbon budget 2021\u2019<\/cite>,     https:\/\/www.globalcarbonproject.org\/carbonbudget\/21\/infographics.htm<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nQuando os nossos antepassados come\u00e7aram a fabricar utens\u00edlios de pedra<\/q> Harmand, S., \u20183.3-million-year-old stone tools from Lomekwi 3, West Turkana, Kenya\u2019<\/cite>, Nature<\/span>, 521 (7552), 2015: 310\u201315, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/nature14464<\/a>; Brahic, C., \u2018Human ancestors got a grip on tools 3 million years ago\u2019<\/cite>, New Scientist<\/span>, 22 de Janeiro de 2015, https:\/\/www.newscientist.com\/article\/dn26844-human-ancestors-got-a-grip-on-tools-3-million-years-ago<\/a>; Skinner, M. M., et al<\/em>., \u2018Human-like hand use in Australopithecus africanus\u2019<\/cite>, Science<\/span>, 347 (6220), 2015: 395\u20139, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.1261735<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \ncentenas de milh\u00f5es de pessoas estar\u00e3o expostas a ondas de calor mort\u00edferas<\/q> Hoegh-Guldberg, O., et al<\/em>., \u2018Impacts of 1.5\u00baC global warming on natural and human systems\u2019<\/cite>, in Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas, Global Warming of 1.5\u00b0C: An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5\u00b0C above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty<\/span>, ed. V. Masson-Delmotte (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018), https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/chapter-3\/<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    \nmesmo com um aquecimento de 1,5\u00b0C, o gelo marinho\u2026 quase desaparecer\u00e1 <\/q> Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas, \u2018Summary for policymakers\u2019<\/cite>, in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis<\/span>, paragraph B.2.5: \u2018The Arctic is likely to be practically sea ice-free in de Setembro de at least once before 2050 under the five illustrative scenarios considered in this report.\u2019<\/cite> Under the lowest of these emissions scenarios (SSP1-1.9), the global surface temperature relative to 1950\u20132000 is predicted to increase by 1.5\u00b0C in 2021\u201340, 1.6\u00b0C in 2041\u201360 and 1.4\u00b0C in 2081\u20132100, i.e. 1.5\u00b0C with limited overshoot: ibid., Table SPM.1.\n<\/p>\n

    \nCom um aquecimento de 3 a 4\u00b0C, desaparecer\u00e1 por completo<\/q> Fox-Kemper, B., et al<\/em>., \u2018Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change\u2019<\/cite>, in Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas<\/span>, ed. V. Masson-Delmotte et al<\/em>. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, no prelo), https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/<\/a>, \u2018Executive summary\u2019<\/cite> : \u2018The practically ice-free state is projected to occur more often with higher greenhouse gas concentrations, and it will become the new normal for high-emissions scenarios by the end of this century (high confidence) \u2026 At sustained warming levels between 1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C, the Arctic Ocean will become practically sea ice-free in de Setembro de in some years (medium confidence) \u2026 At sustained warming levels between 2\u00b0C and 3\u00b0C, the Arctic Ocean will be practically sea ice-free throughout de Setembro de in most years (medium confidence) \u2026 At sustained warming levels between 3\u00b0C and 5\u00b0C, the Arctic Ocean will become practically sea ice-free throughout several months in most years (high confidence).\u2019<\/cite>\n<\/p>\n

    \nMesmo com estas temperaturas<\/q> Lee, J.-Y., et al<\/em>., \u2018Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information\u2019<\/cite>, in Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas<\/span>, ed. V. Masson-Delmotte et al<\/em>. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, no prelo), doi: 10.1017\/9781009157896.006.<\/p>\n

    \ncom um aquecimento global de\u2026 10\u00b0C at\u00e9 2300<\/q> Ibid., Table 4.9. Under the highest illustrative emissions scenario (SSP5-8), the best estimate (mean) for the increased in global air surface temperature by 2300 relative to 1950\u20132000 is 9.6\u00b0C, with a very likely (90 per cent) possibility of anywhere between 6.6 and 14.1\u00b0C.\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    \n\u201ca menos que haja redu\u00e7\u00f5es imediatas, r\u00e1pidas e em grande escala\u201d<\/q> Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas, \u2018Climate change widespread, rapid, and intensifying\u2019<\/cite> (press release for the completion of the IPCC Working Group I report Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis<\/span>), 9 august 2021, https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/2021\/08\/09\/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    \nse essas pol\u00edticas forem aplicadas com sucesso<\/q> Carbon Brief, \u2018Analysis: do COP26 promises keep global warming below 2\u00b0C?\u2019<\/cite>, 10 de Novembro de 2021, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-do-cop26-promises-keep-global-warming-below-2c<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Tamsin Edwards Todas as fontes online foram acedidas no dia 4 de Mar\u00e7o de 2022 O tipo de calor que era esperado apenas uma vez em cada d\u00e9cada Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas, \u2018Summary for policymakers\u2019, in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"parent":981,"menu_order":24,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-essay.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1002","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/pt-pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1002","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/pt-pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/pt-pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/pt-pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/pt-pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1002"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/pt-pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1002\/revisions"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/pt-pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/pt-pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}