{"id":314,"date":"2022-09-15T21:08:53","date_gmt":"2022-09-15T21:08:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/?page_id=314"},"modified":"2022-11-04T11:16:06","modified_gmt":"2022-11-04T11:16:06","slug":"4-17-is-the-future-electric","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/en-us\/endnotes\/what-weve-done-about-it\/4-17-is-the-future-electric\/","title":{"rendered":"4.17 Is the Future Electric?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Jillian Anable<\/a> and Christian Brand<\/a><\/p>\n

All online sources accessed on

    \n
  1. \n

    \ntotal transport activity is expected to more than double<\/q> International Transport Forum, \u2018Executive Summary\u2019<\/cite>, ITF Transport Outlook 2021<\/span> , 17 May 2021, https:\/\/www.itf-oecd.org\/itf-transport-outlook-2021<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nno way we can meet the decarbonization targets of the Paris Agreement<\/q> Ibid.\n<\/p>\n

    \nCars, vans and buses tend to stay in circulation<\/q> Keith, D. R., et al., \u2018Vehicle fleet turnover and the future of fuel economy\u2019<\/cite>, Environmental Research Letters<\/span>, 14 (2), 2019: Article 021001, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/aaf4d2<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nglobal CO2<\/sub> emissions from cars drop by only 14 per cent<\/q> International Energy Agency, \u2018Transport sector CO2<\/sub> emissions by mode in the sustainable development scenario, 2000\u20132030\u2019<\/cite>, 5 January 2022, https:\/\/www.iea.org\/data-and-statistics\/charts\/transport-sector-co2-emissions-by-mode-in-the-sustainable-development-scenario-2000-2030<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    \nincreasing vehicle weight and power \u2026 reducing the rate of efficiency<\/q> International Energy Agency, Vehicle Fuel Economy in Major Markets 2005\u20132019<\/span>, Global Fuel Economy Initiative working paper, November 2021, https:\/\/www.globalfueleconomy.org\/data-and-research\/publications\/gfei-working-paper-22<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \n45 per cent of all light-duty vehicle sales<\/q> \u2018In 2021, SUVs accounted for more than 45% of global car sales \u2013 setting a new record in terms of both volume and market share.\u2019 (Source: https:\/\/www.iea.org\/commentaries\/global-suv-sales-set-another-record-in-2021-setting-back-efforts-to-reduce-emissions<\/a>)\n<\/p>\n

    \nThis eroded up to 40 per cent of improvements in fuel economy<\/q> Global Fuel Economy Initiative, \u2018Vehicle efficiency improvements vastly insufficient to achieve Paris goals says new GFEI report in urgent call for policy action\u2019<\/cite>, 4 November 2021, https:\/\/www.globalfueleconomy.org\/blog\/2021\/november\/vehicle-efficiency-improvements-vastly-insufficient-to-achieve-paris-goals-says-new-gfei-report-in-urgent-call-for-policy-action<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \ncarbon emissions in 2020 fell across all sectors except for one<\/q> Cozzi, L., and Petropoulos, A., \u2018Carbon emissions fell across all sectors in 2020 except for one \u2013 SUVs \u2013 analysis\u2019<\/cite>, International Energy Agency, 15 January 2021, https:\/\/www.iea.org\/commentaries\/carbon-emissions-fell-across-all-sectors-in-2020-except-for-one-suvs<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nThe US \u2026 incentivizes large EVs<\/q> United States Environment and Protection Agency, \u2018Highlights of the automotive trends report\u2019<\/cite>, 19 November 2019, https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/automotive-trends\/highlights-automotive-trends-report<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nplug-in hybrid cars \u2026 about a third of global EV sales<\/q> \u2018plug-in hybrid electric cars made up about a fifth of global EV sales in 2021\u2019 https:\/\/www.iea.org\/data-and-statistics\/charts\/electric-car-registrations-and-sales-share-in-china-united-states-europe-and-other-regions-2016-2021<\/a>, based on data underpinning the Figure \u2018Electric car registrations and sales share in China, United States, Europe and other regions, 2016-2021\u2019.\n<\/p>\n

    \nOne of the fastest, easiest and most efficient methods<\/q> Boyle, D. et al., Smoking out the Climate: Lessons from the Advertising Ban on Tobacco for Tackling the Climate Emergency<\/span><\/cite>, Badvertising, August 2020, https:\/\/static1.squarespace.com\/static\/5ebd0080238e863d04911b51\/t\/5f1fe08099156872c6ca1e59\/1595924618033\/Smoking+Out+The+Climate+FINAL.pdf<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \ncould cumulatively save about 100 million tonnes of CO2<\/sub><\/q> Gross, R., et al., Review of Energy Policy<\/span><\/cite>, United Kingdom Energy Research Centre, December 2020, https:\/\/ukerc.ac.uk\/publications\/review-of-energy-policy-2020\/<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nan increasing number of people are being forced to own a car<\/q> Mattioli, G., \u2018Transport poverty and car dependence: a European perspective\u2019<\/cite>, in Pereira, R. H. M., and Boisjoly, G., eds., Advances in Transport Policy and Planning: Social Issues in Transport Planning<\/span> (London: Academic Press, 2021), 101\u201333, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/bs.atpp.2021.06.004<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    \na motorway speed limit of 130 kilometres per hour<\/q> Umweltbundesamt, \u2018Speed limits on motorways clearly cut down CO2<\/sub> emissions\u2019<\/cite>, 18 March 2020, https:\/\/www.umweltbundesamt.de\/en\/press\/pressinformation\/speed-limits-on-motorways-clearly-cut-down-co2<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nmore than the annual total of sixty of the lowest-emitting countries<\/q> Global Carbon Atlas, \u2018CO2<\/sub> emissions\u2019<\/cite>, 2018, www.globalcarbonatlas.org\/en\/CO2-emissions<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nLowering the speed limit to 100 kph<\/q> Umweltbundesamt, \u2018Speed limits on motorways clearly cut down CO2<\/sub> emissions\u2019<\/cite>.\n<\/p>\n

    \n59 per cent of car trips are less than 5 miles<\/q> Department for Transport, \u2018National travel survey: 2020\u2019<\/cite>, 22 September 2021, https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/statistics\/national-travel-survey-2020\/national-travel-survey-2020<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nWalking, cycling and e-biking \u2026 can reduce emissions<\/q> Brand, C., et al., \u2018The climate change mitigation impacts of active travel: evidence from a longitudinal panel study in seven European cities\u2019<\/cite>, Global Environmental Change<\/span>, 67, 2021: Article 102224, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2021.102224<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nnew, lighter forms of e-micromobility<\/q> Ebenezer, N., et al., Electromobility in the Global South: An Equitable Transition toward Road Passenger Transport Decarbonization<\/span><\/cite>, Sustainable Mobility for All Partnership and Climate Compatible Growth Programme, https:\/\/www.sum4all.org\/data\/files\/electromobility_in_the_global_south_an_equitable_transition_toward_road_passenger_transport_decarbonization.pdf<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nbuses are \u2026 making the transition to battery technology<\/q> Facts & Factors, \u2018Global electric bus market share grow at 25% CAGR, to exceed 600 thousand units sales by 2026, according to Facts & Factors\u2019<\/cite>, GlobeNewswire, 25 June 2021, https:\/\/www.globenewswire.com\/news-release\/2021\/06\/25\/2253218\/0\/en\/Global-Electric-Bus-Market-Share-Grow-at-25-CAGR-to-Exceed-600-Thousand-Units-Sales-by-2026-According-to-Facts-Factors.html<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    \nprimarily saw increased uptake among existing users<\/q> Figg, H., \u2018Free passenger transport \u2013 exploring the benefits and disadvantages\u2019<\/cite>, Eltis, 2 June 2021, https:\/\/www.eltis.org\/resources\/case-studies\/free-passenger-transport-exploring-benefits-and-disadvantages<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \ncar-restricting policies were crucial for the Netherlands<\/q> Bruno, M., et al., \u2018Mobility protests in the Netherlands of the 1970s: activism, innovation, and transitions\u2019<\/cite>, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions<\/span>, 40, 2021: 521\u201335, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.eist.2021.10.001<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nper capita carbon emissions from personal transport in the Netherlands<\/q> Calculation of average per capita carbon emissions based on data from European Environment Agency, \u2018EEA greenhouse gases: data viewer\u2019<\/cite>, https:\/\/www.eea.europa.eu\/data-and-maps\/data\/data-viewers\/greenhouse-gases-viewer<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \ntotal car mileage will need to decline<\/q> Hopkinson, L., et al., \u2018Radical transport policy two-pager #10. The last chance saloon: we need to cut car mileage by at least 20 per cent\u2019<\/cite>, Transport for Quality of Life, December 2021, https:\/\/www.transportforqualityoflife.com\/u\/files\/211214 per cent20The per cent20last per cent20chance per cent20saloon per cent20to per cent20cut per cent20car per cent20mileage.pdf<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \npolicies to create \u2018fifteen-\u2019 or \u2018twenty-minute neighbourhoods\u2019<\/q> Pozoukidou, G., and Chatziyiannaki, Z., \u201815-minute city: decomposing the new urban planning eutopia\u2019<\/cite>, Sustainability<\/span>, 13 (2), 2021: Article 928, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/su13020928<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nthe Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated trends towards virtual meanings<\/q> Skiles, M., et al., \u2018Conference demographics and footprint changed by virtual platforms\u2019<\/cite>, Nature Sustainability<\/span>, 5 (2), 2022: 149\u201356, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41893-021-00823-2<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  5. \n

    \njust 11 per cent \u2026 accounts for nearly 44 per cent of total car mileage<\/q> Cass, N., et al., Curbing Excess: High Energy Consumption and the Fair Energy Transition, Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions<\/span><\/cite>, February 2020, https:\/\/www.creds.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/CREDS-curbing-excess-Feb2022.pdf<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

    \nAbout 80 per cent \u2026 have never flown<\/q> Hopkinson, L., and Cairns, S., Elite Status: Global Inequalities in Flying<\/span><\/cite>, Possible, March 2021, https:\/\/static1.squarespace.com\/static\/5d30896202a18c0001b49180\/t\/605a0951f9b7543b55bb003b\/1616513362894\/Elite+Status+Global+inequalities+in+flying.pdf<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Jillian Anable and Christian Brand All online sources accessed on 1 March 2022 total transport activity is expected to more than double International Transport Forum, \u2018Executive Summary\u2019, ITF Transport Outlook 2021 , 17 May 2021, https:\/\/www.itf-oecd.org\/itf-transport-outlook-2021. no way we can meet the decarbonization targets of the Paris Agreement Ibid. Cars, vans and buses tend to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"parent":148,"menu_order":17,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-essay.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-314","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/314\/revisions"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/148"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/theclimatebook.org\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}